WP3000 Description
WP3000 Impact assessment of Intelligent Vehicle Safety Systems
In this work package, the impacts of Intelligent Vehicle Safety Systems (IVSS) on traffic and safety are assessed. The objectives of this work package are to
- Create scenarios of market penetration and acceptance of Intelligent Vehicle Safety Systems for 2010 and 2020;
- Assess the impacts of the Intelligent Vehicle Safety Systems in these scenarios in terms of safety, traffic, environmental and other impacts; and
- Coordinate with the Accident Causation STREP, TRACE, to exchange information about the effects of IVSS.
The results will used in the socio-economic impact analysis (WP2000) and WP4000 (Policy options for facilitating market introduction).
WP3100: Scenarios for market acceptance and penetration
First of all, scenarios will be produced for 2010 and 2020, describing IVSS systems in terms of penetration rates, application areas, etc.. The fleet penetration rates for future vehicle fleets are determined on the basis of current vehicle fleet age distributions from the different EU countries (taking into account that IVSS are likely to be introduced first on new vehicles -which usually make more km's than old vehicles- and possibly on busy roads).
WP3200: Traffic impact analysis
For the different scenarios for market acceptance and penetration, the effects of IVSS on traffic are quantified in terms of the traffic flow effects (homogenisation, speed differences, travel times), fuel consumption and possibly environmental effects, for the years 2010 and 2020. Three traffic simulation models will be used in order to carry out the analysis: the ITS modeller, VISSIM and FARSI Simulator. The models will be applied in a coordinated way, making use of each model's strengths. Essential to the modelling approach is the requirement that the modelling component be reusable for similar types of analyses involving IVSS.
WP3300: Safety impact analysis
In addition to the traffic impacts, the safety impacts of IVSS are determined. Estimates of safety impacts for the selected IVSS will be provided in terms of %-changes (with ranges) in the number of fatalities and injured persons. This will be done for different situations (accident type, road class, volume class), vehicle types and EU regions, and for the different dimensions of safety (exposure, crash risk, crash consequences). WP3300 will work together closely with the TRACE project (a parallel STREP on Accident causation), by holding two workshops with partners from both this and TRACE.
